Currently, in England and Wales, adult prisoners serving a sentence of 12 months or more are supervised by the Probation Service “on licence” upon release from custody, whilst those serving a sentence of less than 12 months are not. This paper summarises work exploring the use of a Regression Discontinuity Design to assess the impact of this supervision on re-offending rates. The analysis compares the re-offending rates of offenders either side of the 12 month licence supervision threshold. It is based on offenders with one or no previous convictions and sentenced to around a year in custody.
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